"Events dear chap events"
Macmillan's famous quote describes the complex political situation that faces Blair.
On the left there was a debate over whether the US and Britain could face a Vietnam-style war of resistance in Iraq. The general assessment was that it could not given the lack of jungles and that there was no external support for any resistance fighters. In a sense this represented a narrowing view of the history of the struggle against imperialism missing out the Algerian war and the struggle of the Greek communist resistance.
There is no longer any argument that a full-scale armed resistance has developed against the illegal occupation in Iraq. It is complex, involving different segments of the population. Many of the resistors are reactionary. They consist of right-wing clerics who wish to introduce a full-scale fundamentalist regime in the country. They have been receiving heavy backing from the Iranian secret service. Other elements are left over from the gangster Saddam Hussain's regime and are not much more than criminal gangs. The support for the aims of these groups among the general population is small. However the hatred of the occupiers and their failure to improve the conditions in Iraq has given them the scope to conduct daily attacks on the US and UK troops and their quisling supporters. And there are many more that are fighting to chuck out the invaders.
Everyone knows that Blair and Bush lied over the invasion. They achieved their easy victory over the tyrant but their expectation that they would be received like conquering heroes and that they would be able to install an amiable puppet regime is being destroyed in the blood-soaked dust of Iraq.
Politicians who consistently send troops out to war without going themselves become detached from everyday political reality. Blair has now engaged in four wars without firing a single shot himself. His grasp of reality was shown by his attempt to invite the coalition-appointed Iraqi president, a gangster, to the New Labour Party Conference. This is a President who has reintroduced Saddam Hussain's death penalty. Danish troops are refusing to hand prisoners across to the British in case they are killed. A regime that Blair is in bed with.
It is by your friends you are known. In Europe Blair is politically lined up with the corrupt right-wing Berlusconi even to the extent of taking his hospitality in Italy. Another New Labour turncoat, Blunkett, has taken to sleeping with the enemy. His relationship with the owner of the Spectator is not sexual but political. With his right-wing Tory policies it is not surprising he is stepping out with them. There was not a peep out him when a senior Judge allowed evidence in court which could have been obtained by torture.
But it is Iraq that will dominate the upcoming UK elections. There have been various opinion polls about its importance in voters' intentions. However if the course of the occupation continues to run roughly, the electorate's various fears of terrorism will expand. Blair has not delivered on some of his important campaign promises, especially on transport and the health service. There has been an expansion in education and some cut in crime levels. Money, much of it dodgy Private Finance Initiative funds, has been put in. There is however unlikely to be any significant improvement in public sector performance before June 2005. However the events in Iraq could blow up before such an election date. The temptation must be to go this autumn.
There are number of things that make this likely.
- New Labour's membership is now down to 170,000. They have lost a considerable number of activists and are unlikely to be able to sustain a long-drawn-out campaign on the doorsteps and streets.
- They do have a enough money from their millionaire backers and from the big four unions after their rotten deal to run a short sharp campaign. Doing this sooner rather than later would take advantage of the present Tory disarray. Howard hasn't even appointed an advertising agency. Although the Tories will raise marginally more money than New Labour an autumn campaign would give them almost no chance to spend it effectively.
- A victory for Blair in October would help Bush in his November Presidential bid. Bush would be able to project it as part of their "successful" alliance in Iraq. Bush just might order his agents in the UK cabinet to press for this.
- The 20 New Labour constituencies who have not yet selected candidates have been to told have them ready for the Party Conference in October.
- The Party Conference would be converted into a pre-election rally or cancelled so there would be no accounting over the Iraq invasion.
- The by-election at West Hartlepool will not need to be held. Mandelson would have calculated this before resigning.
- The opinion polls put New Labour ahead and the support for the Tory leadership as very weak.
In politics it is very difficult to stop doing something that is possible. It is possible for Blair to call the election this autumn and he would win. Before he went on his extended holidays to meet his various exotic friends he was planning a May election but the cold reality of London could change his mind.
Election fixing
The United States Presidential elections have seen unprecedented attempts at rigging the elections. Given that the two main candidates, Kerry and Bush, have almost no differences over policy the vicious nature of struggle is entirely about how to share out the fruits of victory and not about serving the electors. Only a minority of the eligible population of the USA will vote in the Presidential elections.
But for Bush that will be too many. Police working for Jeb Bush, the Governor of Florida, have being visiting elderly black voters with the clear intention of intimidating them into not voting.
But Governor Jeb believes in helping his brother out on a more industrial scale in order to repeat his success in the previous Presidential election. He tried to purge 47,000 supposed ex-felons from the electoral roll. However a Miami Herald investigation of the list found it named Democrats by a three-to-one margin and wrongly listed 2,100 people whose citizenship had already been restored through a clemency process. It also was heavily weighted towards possible black voters.
The Tampa Tribune produced another outrageous discovery: while half of those on the list are black, it contains the names of fewer than 100 Hispanics. Hispanics in Florida tend to be Republican voting Cuban-Americans. Good old boy Jeb was just amazed about the lack of Hispanics. However he had been repeatedly warned about it. He finally withdrew the list on July 11. Then, on July 14, the First District US Court of Appeals in Tallahassee ruled the state must help felons fill out the form they need to win back the right to vote after serving their time. Jeb got round this by eliminating the form.
The small socialist parties such as the Social Equality Party, and the Ralph Nader group, have faced repeated legal challenges to keep them off the Presidential ballots. On top of this Republicans have been helping Nader nominations thinking that he will damage the Democrats. Of course these minority candidates will appeal to those who wish to protest against the similar pro-capitalist polices of the big two.
Exporting electoral fraud
Bush's vote-rigging activities are not restricted to the USA. Greg Palast, the campaigning journalist, exposed on his blog (http://www.gregpalast.com/blog.cfm) how John Ashcroft's Justice Department has electoral data on half a dozen countries from a company called Choicepoint Inc of Atlanta. They were offered up $67 million for the information. This was the same company used by Jeb Bush for his electoral roll purge in 2000 in Florida.
One of the Choicepoint's electoral lists was for Venezuela. Greg Palast discovered evidence the Venezuelan group trying to unseat Chavez, the anti-US President, had received $53,000 from the US government. The group also claimed to have computerised voter records.
There has been an ongoing attempt by the US government to remove Chavez because of his attempts to charge US companies more for their exploitation of oil. Chavez has been using oil revenue to improve the lot of the poor in his country. This has been vigorously opposed by the local oil oligarchs.
One clear example of the destabilisation campaign took place in the recent referendum attempt to remove Chavez, when all the western media announced that although the vote was close Chavez had lost. In fact he won by a substantial margin in a vote validated by international observers including former US President Jimmy Carter. There was clear evidence of media manipulation. Another reason why some observers got the vote wrong was due to the reporters being overwhelmingly white while Chavez supporters were overwhelmingly black. The oil elite in Venezuela is white and the division between the rich and the poor runs along racial lines.
The US conventions
The two main parties in the US endorse the candidates by huge political jamborees known as conventions. There is a perception among the Guardian reading New Labour types that somehow the Democrats are more open and more like them than the Republicans. However any objective analysis of Bush and Kerry polices would be hard put to find any differences. This unity is reflected in their conventions. Nothing is allowed to stop their apolitical carnival atmospheres.
At the Democratic convention in Boston there was special area created for demonstrators. This was called a "free-speech" protest zone. It was bordered by cement barriers, a double row of chain-line fencing, heavy black netting, and tightly woven plastic mesh, with coils of razor wire along elevated train tracks. A lawyer for activists challenging the zone compared it to "a maximum security prison, Guantanamo Bay, or a zoo" - comparisons which local judge Woodlock called "an understatement," although he upheld the zone for security reasons. This is one reason why the extensive protests against the occupation of Iraq were hardly reported in the media.
Hopefully this exclusion of protestors will not be so successful at the Republican Convention in New York. Only about 18% of New Yorkers vote Republican but Bush's advisors organised their convention to take advantage of the ceremonies around the anniversary of 9/11. However local anti-war activists are planning a hot reception for Bush as can be seen below.
From the Commons Dreams News Center by Ted Rall
"Rejecting ex-mayor Ed Koch's call to "make nice" with the party that used the deaths of 2,801 New Yorkers - most of them Democrats - for everything from tax cuts for the rich to building concentration camps at Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib to invading Iraq to enrich Dick Cheney and his fellow Halliburton execs, some groups are encouraging liberal-minded New Yorkers to volunteer for the city's squad of official greeters. Creatively altered maps of streets and subways will be handed out to button-clad stupid white men. Other saboteurs wearing fake RNC T-shirts will direct them to parts of town where Bush's policies have hit hardest. Rumor has it that prostitutes suffering from sexually transmitted diseases will discourage the use of condoms with Republican customers.
Anywhere between 250,000 and 1,000,000 anti-Bush demonstrators are expected to hit the streets of Manhattan, but the city and protest organisers can't agree on where to put them. Activists say they'll direct marchers to Central Park, their preferred site; city officials are threatening mass arrests if they do. Adding to the already combustible Chicago '68 vibe is a possible wildcat strike by city cops and firefighters. And now, as if everyone concerned wasn't already tweaky, FBI agents are traveling around the United States, to harass members of leftist groups planning to protest the New York RNC."
The whole site is interesting at http://www.commondreams.org/
The New York Police have testing out a new sound blaster designed to drown out the protestors. They have also been practicing how to round them up and put them in jail.
Facts about Haliburton
The US armed forces in Iraq are fed by Haliburton, the oil and services conglomerate. They are responsible for $18 billion of other contracts let by the federal Government in Iraq.
Their former chief Executive and Chairman Dick Cheney is Vice President of the USA.
The majority of their Iraq contracts were let without the need to tender.
They have padded these contracts making no attempt to get value for money. One of the many complaints was about a man who was paid $82,000 a year to supervise a non existent labour team. Their managers routinely stayed at five star hotels and just passed the cost on to the US taxpayer.
The scandals reached such height that the US Army decided on the 17th August to withhold 15% of the money they were paying to Haliburton until they improved.
On the 18th August they let Haliburton off the hook and said they would give them more time to respond to complaints.
One pouch of food to be supplied as emergency rations troops in Iraq allows them to use urine to rehydrate it. It is not clear whether this will be supplied by Haliburton. The pouch was developed by the Combat Feeding Directorate.
Haliburton is playing a key role in developing the Iraqi oil industry for the USA.
We have not yet been able to obtain the same amount of information about the interaction of Sainsbury with the Blair government but I understand some of my AGS comrades are working on this.
Peter O'Grady
Peter O'Grady has died aged 77 years. His funeral was held on July 12.
Peter worked as a carpenter at a large store in Leeds. He devoted his life to the labour movement and to entertainment. He was never happier than when he was able to combine the two. His "turns" at Leeds Labour Party's annual Christmas shows were often the highlight. He could leave an audience rolling with tears with his imitations of prominent labour movement figures. He was particularly fond of his realistic Dennis Healey imitations with whom he had frequently clashed inside the movement.
Sometimes his sense of humour and theatre could be mischievous. One old-timer described sitting next to Peter at a particularly boring Leeds District Labour Party meeting when he whispered to him "Watch this; I am going to make a speech about nothing and they will all end up applauding". He stood with a quite characteristic opening "Mr Chairman I think we need to consider the following main facts...and of course we need to examine them carefully" He carried on for five minutes building up to grand finale without detailing or explaining any facts and he got his applause.
Liz Davies told me how much she liked him, and recalled that during her successful fight for the parliamentary nomination for Leeds North East Labour Party "At the Chapel Allerton selection, he asked me what I thought was a fiendishly difficult question about health and safety on building sites. Afterwards, he told me it was meant to be a helpful question."
He put his oratory to good use over the years, constantly fighting for socialism both inside the trade union movement and the Labour Party. Over the last few years he had been severely suffering from Parkinson's disease. This was most frustrating to him as it prevented him from being able to speak in public. However he was able to overcome the disease during the campaign to prevent a MacDonald's being built next to the Scotthall Sports centre. He gave a characteristically strong performance and he was pleased he was able to make a difference. He was also on the winning side. There is now a medical centre being built on the site.
Peter was the most prominent left-wing trade unionist in Leeds for decades. As national lay chair of UCATT (the building workers union) he almost single-handedly rescued the union from bankruptcy caused by a group of right-wing full-time officials. A dozen full-time officials split from the union, trying to take the membership into the electrical trade union (ETU) and the GMB. This nearly wrecked the union. Peter had the full time executive suspended and led the union directly. He went to the High Court to argue the case. And once again his hard work and oratory saved the day. No wonder one of his close allies and now the General Secretary of UCATT, George Brumwell, turned up to pay his respects at the funeral.
During the Labour Party's Deputy Leadership campaign he played the leading role in getting UCATT to vote for Benn. He spoke alongside Tony Benn at Leeds Town Hall at was the biggest political rally held in Leeds since the Second World War. Despite been telephoned by Dennis Healey he succeeded in persuading the UCATT Labour Party delegation to vote for Benn.
He flung himself completely into supporting the miners during the 1984 strike, speaking at and inspiring many meetings. Garth Frankland tells me about one meeting at Fryston Colliery when speaking on the same platform as Peter to nearly a thousand miners and their supporters he felt both outclassed and inspired. Garth said that listening or talking to Peter lifted your spirits even when the political going was hard. One meeting Garth had arranged to celebrate the Russian Revolution had Peter as the main speaker. Unfortunately Garth had failed to advertise the meeting properly so there was only a small attendance. Peter still gathered the people there around him and cheered them up with his speech.
Peter belonged to a small but remarkable group of labour movement militants in Leeds, including Dulcie and Charlie Yelland and Ron Sedler, who were brought to Trotskyism by John Archer and who, though too sensible to stay in the various sects, remained true to a socialist vision to the end of their lives.
If anyone wants to share anymore anecdotes of Peter's life please email our site.
The AGS salutes Peter's many achievements and expresses its condolences to his wife Dorothy, daughters Helen and Jane and son Simon.
Danny Freeman
Danny Freeman has died aged 83. Over a 20 year period he raised over £250,000 for Leeds health services with his voice and collecting tin. In rain and snow he collected money on the streets of Leeds. He used his wonderful voice to draw the crowds. By the end he had to use two collecting tins one in his hands for the silver and on the pavement for the copper.
When young he was a member of the Communist Party and his first full-time job was selling the Daily Worker. His main musical influence was Paul Robeson, who he heard sing live. He kept his socialist beliefs all through his life. He would when collecting always greet comrades with a fine rendition of the Internationale.
The AGS sends its condolences to Danny's family. He is missed.
Second thoughts
Geraldine Smith (MP for Morecombe & Lunesdale) said in a Guardian article on July 17th that she was misled into voting for the invasion of Iraq.
She watched with disbelief the way that Blair handled the Butler report in Parliament. "Lord Butler's report had revealed that parliament, the people and the press had all been misled. They had not been lied to, they had just not been told the whole truth."
She says that if Parliament had known that there was no real evidence for weapons of mass destruction they would not have voted for the invasion. She felt she had been deceived to voting for the war and she feels that the Prime Minister should resign.
Some people on the Left have said that Geraldine Smith should have come to this conclusion when it really mattered in Parliament; however she will get a chance to prove that she was genuine soon. Eleven MPs led by Adam Price, Plaid Cymru MP for Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, are tabling a motion when parliament returns to try to force the prime minister to appear before the Commons to defend his record in the run-up to the war. If she signs the impeachment motion she will prove her critics wrong.
The motion will also put Colin Burgon on the spot. He has, according to the Guardian of the 18th March, written to Labour Party members in his constituency of Elmet recanting his support for the war. He has studiously avoided mentioning this quiet act of criticism on his curiously old-fashioned website.
Sheffield Green Fair
The Alliance for Green Socialism followed up their work at the South Yorkshire Festival with a successful stall at the Sheffield Green Fair. Leading members of the AGS were able to meet a number their supporters and gain some new contacts from the South Yorkshire region despite the appalling weather. I kept on missing the York Green Councillor Mark Hill so I was unable to clarify why he dropped his attacks on the Liberal Democrats from his web site. As I mentioned in Umbrella 75 this occurred after his colleagues in Leeds moved into coalition with Liberal Democrats and the Tories.
Perhaps when colleagues set up the Leeds Council Watch they will be able to ask him to comment.
Where or when is Bin Laden?
Despite increasingly frantic attempts in Pakistan and in Afghanistan by the Americans to track down Bin Laden before the US presidential elections they have come nowhere close. My Yemeni uncle tells me the Americans have doubled their reward and that this resulted in him examining whether he can find a double to be blasted away by the American Special Forces having planted the appropriate DNA traces. It may be possible to persuade some fundamentalist that they would be doing the "cause" a good turn and the reward could be shared with his family and my uncle.
Of course I have always maintained that Bin Laden is in Tel Aviv; however a story about another safe haven has been passed on to me. Apparently a very large seafront property in Margate was bought by Saudi Arabian Prince who was a distant relative of Bin Laden. The bottom has been boarded up since the Prince died but the upstairs has wonderful sea views which would enable Bin Laden to easily avoid the predictable coastal patrols going backwards forwards via one of the many merchant ships anchored off the coast each night.
-- Half-Celestial Khan
