On the Warpath
The key political issue is when Bush decides to hit Saddam and the Iraqi people.
He has two military windows: early autumn towards the end of September and early spring around April. American and British forces have built a considerable strike force around the Indian Ocean and Arabian Gulf. They are capable now of launching an immense air and rocket barrage, which will degrade the whole civilised structure of Iraq.
However, given the limited success in tracking down the man on the white horse in Afghanistan and the reported build-up of Taliban and Al Qaida forces in the mountains, some in the military and political structures of the US government are arguing caution. The hawks under Bush are of course ascendant and nobody is arguing to leave Saddam alone. The military questions are now seen as secondary to the global picture in oil. Hence Bush's last-minute efforts to get his old friends in Saudi Arabia on board. Others in the administration are beginning to realise that the reactionary Saudi regime is beginning to collapse and that it is also helping the Al Qaida forces behind the scenes.
As these arguments continue the price of oil is starting to rise. This is the issue that is really worrying the Blair government, not the opinion polls which now show that an overwhelming majority of Labour voters are hostile to a war in Iraq. Blair knows that any victorious war would rapidly alter these opinion polls and anyhow it is at least two years to the next General Election. The price of oil is different. The protests two years ago gave Blair the only scare of his administration and he wants to avoid any more pickets from the lorry drivers and their supporters.
Blair has displayed some public hesitation in supporting Bush; however, he has always indicated he will support him up the hilt militarily. The British are continuing to build up their armed forces in the Gulf. Over the last few days both senior cabinet officials and junior members of the Government have been actively leaking Blair's doubts in the international press. This is partly expressing his worries over oil prices but also reflecting new intelligence information. British intelligence now has two highly placed sources within the Bush regime.
They became aware of the continuing criminal financial crisis in the US, which has rendered some individuals very vulnerable, and of the others who fear the total size of the crisis Bush is dragging them into. These new sources reveal the lack of hard information on Saddam and also the lack of any endgame vision in Iraq.
Carnival
I have had a wonderful time over the last few weeks at various carnivals.
In Amsterdam I was able to watch the annual Gay Parade held on boats. Seventy boats passed over 200,000 spectators lining the canals. There was a wide variety of floats depicting a wide variety of themes. There was an emphasis on combating AIDS and unlike this year's London Gay Pride march an emphasis on the political importance of gay rights as part of human rights in general.
The winning boat had a number of men dressed in tuxedos miming to All that Jazz from the musical Chicago. I was lucky enough to catch the winning boat as I was sipping a cool Amstel beer at a canalside café as they stopped to entertain my distinguished party.
Once again the Leeds West Indian Carnival was blessed with wonderful weather. The Prince and Princess's show produced three winners for the first time, such was the superb quality of the contestants.
Although the Leeds West Indian Carnival used to go into the town centre in its early days, the Queen's Show has always been held in Chapeltown or at Primrose Hill School. However this year it was held in Millennium Square. Over 1,000 people packed into the marquee to see an amazing and colourful show.
Once again the king of British carnival designers Hughbon Condor won. His sailing ship captured all our hearts.
At least this year nobody was embarrassed by Councillor Eileen Moxon who seemed to be prepared to take a back seat.
RJC Dance Theatre also entertained the audience with two stunning performances proving why they are among the best in the world. I caught site of two of my old friends, Garth Frankland and the Lord Mayor Bryan North, in earnest and friendly conversation. Perhaps they were reminiscing of their legendary trip to Perugia and Assi.
The Leeds Reggae concert jumped Potternewton Park on the Sunday of carnival weekend. Over 10,000 people enjoyed the mixture of local and international talent. This magic music was mixed with the wonderful smells of Caribbean cooking.
Carnival day starts early with the J'Ouvert procession at 6.00 am. This year Garth Frankland joined the 800 revellers and two sound systems waking up Chapeltown ready for carnival. Not a single police officer in sight throughout three and half-hours of non-stop dancing. Except of course the retired and very relaxed Community Inspector for Chapeltown Police.
In the afternoon over 100,000 people watched the carnival procession. This year it was led by the Lord Mayor of Leeds and, dressed in a traditional costume, the MP for Leeds North East Fabian Hamilton. I understand from my mobile phone monitors that Fabian was called away on urgent Parliamentary business halfway round the parade. They were followed, I was told, by the Lord Mayor's car in which sat Councillor Eileen Moxon who waved a stick with red feathers at the crowds. Then came the Carnival Queen and the rest of the lively and colourful procession.
In my first visit to the Notting Hill Carnival with my friends from the Dainty Crew we too had a wonderful time. It was more crowded than Leeds, the music was often louder and missed some of the traditional ska sound. I also missed the atmosphere of Potternewton Park. Perhaps next year I will be able to make Trinidad for a true set of comparisons.
One person I missed through these glorious and happy events was the former Chair of West Yorkshire Police Councillor Neil Taggart. Perhaps he was resting after the psephological efforts of the Leeds boundary changes. Changes that will result in him in fighting another election in eighteen months time.
Snippets
Racism
The true priorities of this government in fighting racism are shown in the continuing failure of the Government to prosecute the BNP over their alleged funding by the KKK. This is apparently illegal under both UK and US law. It is perhaps a practical issue that Fabian Hamilton could take up.
However, given that the Blair Government was helping to run Germany's largest neo-nazi organisation I wouldn't hold your breath.
The Yorkshire coalfields
The Government is moving towards removing the Magnox reactors from the private nuclear industry so it can make a profit. Effectively hundreds of millions of pounds of tax payers' money is going to be used to subsidise this industry after they had ripped billions of pounds off us after privatisation.
The contrast with the coal industry couldn't be sharper. This week the Prince of Wales Colliery, Pontefract (Ponty Prince) is closing. The seam-rich Selby coalfields are on the edge of closing. No such subsidies are being offered to them.
Even in pits such as Rossington an atmosphere of doom hangs over them.
My old cycling companion Jon Trickett, the MP for Hemsworth, raised the plight of the workers in South Kirkby, a former coal mining village. After an early wave of pit closures a Leeds clothing company -- with Government help -- relocated one of its factories there from Leeds. This is now to close with the work going to Hungary. The village already has high unemployment and this is a huge body blow.
Jon has previously raised in Parliament the importance of this factory and the importance of the government supporting the coal industry. This is now the crunch time for him. The UK is now running out of gas. The latest estimates indicate that North Sea gas will be finished by 2020. With no coal and a dangerous nuclear power industry Britain will have to rely on oil for all its fuel needs.
This oil supply is completely controlled by Bush. We are moving consciously under Blair to becoming a complete client state of the US with no ability to act independently.
Over coal the battle-lines have drawn clearly and they are exactly same as those over Iraq.
Jobs on the move
It's not just the clothing workers' jobs of South Kirby that are on the move. Computer self-employed have succeeded in getting the Government to ban Indian programmers/IT workers from coming to work in the UK in order to keep their wages up.
But, like call centres and clothing jobs, programming work is going to India, China and Eastern Europe. This will accelerate if the workers can't come to the UK.
It is not possible to achieve a sustainable planet with the unrestricted activities of the multinationals wrecking local economies through their influence in the USA, World Bank and the World Trade Organisation.
The alternative has to be a practical combination of political challenge and activities.
Green futures
I paid a trip back to the 1970's by visiting the Centre for Alternative Technology. There were many interesting ideas and demonstrations but the whole political dimension was skated over.
However our former publishing friend, former Hull Councillor and now Leeds MP Colin Challen, has organised a conference on the Johannesburg Sustainability Summit. However the Labour Party and its front organisation SERA are now just apologists for big business who have no intention of letting anything get in the way of their profits.
There is a need for a new green agenda that will link practical issues and fight to regulate big business. It has to be related to real industry and agriculture.
I was recently listening to the Jamaican Governor General, His Excellency The Most Honourable Sir Howard Cooke. He explained how the future Jamaican economy would be a knowledge economy exactly the same as our politicians explain will happen in Leeds, Yorkshire and in England. We are all going to be in this knowledge economy like world.com. This is a magic belief that you can make wealth out of nothing.
Only I can do this!
-- Half-Celestial Khan
